At DML Capital Group, we’re proud to partner with healthcare providers to secure the financing that helps them grow and thrive. As we look ahead, we’re seeing exciting transformations across the industry — and 2025 is shaping up to be a year full of fresh opportunities and meaningful progress.
The past few years haven’t been easy: pandemic aftershocks, rising costs, and staffing shortages have stretched providers and payers thin. But according to new research from McKinsey & Company, signs of recovery are on the horizon. Some parts of the industry are bouncing back faster than others — and that’s where the story gets interesting.
1. The Financial Reality Check
Since 2019, profitability in healthcare has slipped. Industry EBITDA, measured as a share of national health spending, is down about 150 basis points (Becker’s Hospital Review, 2025). Payers and providers have been hit hardest by inflation, labor shortages, and the growing weight of Medicare and Medicaid coverage.
But not everything is slowing down. Segments like healthcare services & technology (HST) and specialty pharmacy are becoming bigger profit drivers.
2. A Recovery Is Coming — and It’s Not Evenly Spread
Between 2023 and 2028, industry EBITDA is expected to grow from $676 billion to $987 billion — that’s a 7% annual growth rate (McKinsey & Company, 2025). Still, not everyone will benefit equally. HST, specialty pharmacies, and non-hospital care settings are expected to lead the way, while hospitals and traditional retail pharmacies face a tougher climb.
3. What’s Happening in Each Segment
Payers
Government programs are where the action is. By 2028, Medicare, Medicaid, and Duals are projected to generate 75% more EBITDA than commercial insurance (McKinsey & Company, 2025). Medicare Advantage — squeezed in 2024 — is set to recover as carriers consolidate and double down on value-based care.
Providers
Hospitals continue to struggle with thin margins, but outpatient and home-based services are thriving. Ambulatory surgery centers, home health, and office-based physician services are all seeing faster growth as patients seek convenience and payers push care into lower-cost settings. Add in rising demand from an aging population and a workforce shortage, and providers are in a uniquely challenging (and changing) position.
Healthcare Services & Technology (HST)
This segment is on fire. It’s projected to hit $100 billion in EBITDA by 2028, powered by outsourcing, AI, and advanced analytics. In fact, more than 70% of healthcare organizations are already experimenting with generative AI (McKinsey & Company, 2025).
Pharmacy
Specialty pharmacy is one of the fastest-growing areas, with over 10% annual growth expected. Oncology drugs and GLP-1 therapies for diabetes and obesity are fueling demand. On the flip side, retail pharmacies are squeezed, and PBMs are facing mounting pressure to be more transparent (Gitnux, 2025).
4. The Five Big Trends to Watch
- Care is shifting away from hospitals and into homes, clinics, and ambulatory centers.
- AI and data analytics are shifting from “nice-to-have” to essential tools.
- Government programs like Medicare Advantage and Medicaid Duals are driving payer growth.
- Specialty drugs and GLP-1 therapies are reshaping pharmacy economics.
- Efficiency and cost control remain top priorities across the board.
5. What This Means If You’re in the Industry
- Payers: sharpen your product design, lean into government programs, and build stronger analytics.
- Providers: adapt to where care is shifting and make smart tech investments.
- HST players: seize the opportunity to lead with AI-powered tools and services.
- Pharmacies & PBMs: prepare for transparency, reimbursement changes, and shifting margins.
As McKinsey points out, the winners will be those that mix operational discipline with innovation.
How DML Capital Group Can Help
At DML Capital Group, we provide tailored financing solutions for healthcare organizations navigating this evolving landscape. Whether you’re looking to grow, adapt to new care models, or manage short-term challenges, we’re here to help you plan for the future with confidence. Let’s talk.
References
- McKinsey & Company (2025, January 10). What to Expect in U.S. Healthcare in 2025 and Beyond.
- Becker’s Hospital Review (2025, March 21). Hospital profitability to begin in 2025: 72 statistics.
- Gitnux (2025, April 29). Specialty pharmacy statistics: Market data report 2025.
